This analysis should be put into context of Natural Gas position which I have written in Natural Gas Major Turning Point: It Begins With It, and Ends With It (29 Sept 2024). At this moment of writing, TTF is testing the upper channel and US 10y yield is also testing an important trendline while the curve has become un-inverted. Both position indicates a corrective phase is to be expected which should bring even more complacency in the market. At present, mainstream media narratives believe strongly in continued weakness in energy market prices (because China economy sucks) and low interest rates (because The Fed and Trump favor low rates). This wrong belief will add more fuel to the next bull cycle in energy prices and rates when trendlines are broken. It is very important to put these trendlines in oil in this context. Bull market in crude oil requires a bull market in Natural Gas, and consequently, a bull market in interest rates (10y). Moreover, a bull market in energy market is necessary for strong rallies in agricultures.
Chart 1: Geometrical Convergence
Crude Oil is at a confluence point where there are 4 lines converging at 50% retracement. Gann fan is constructed from 2020 secondary low with 45' angle that resonates with September 2023 pivot high. The dotted trendline follows a different rule (other frequency) based on pivot lows. The last time price was at such convergence occurred in June 2023.
Chart 2: What To Look For In A Bull Phase
The chart says it all. Watch carefully when crude oil breaks this trendline. Put this trendline in context with Natural Gas (TTF) and US 10y yield trendlines.
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