CPO and oilseeds
October 2022 again...why am I not surprised? (see Natural Gas Major Turning Point: It Begins With It, and Ends With It - 29 Sept 2024)
What happens when cheaper oils reach the old low for expensive oil?
Taking it all together...
CPO stocks and CPO cross-chart analysis - a lost fine art of speculation in today's era of extremely short-term memory and attention lifespan
AALI
March 2024 = The End of Emerging Market Crazy Bull Market since COVID. See The End of Ending Diagonal for Indonesia Largest Bank BBCA (Bank BCA) 14 April 2024
No? Next year (2025), you will see it more clearly.
The pessimism caused by export tax (real issue) and April 2024 EM capital outflow (non-sense is off-the chart.
AALI is still BELOW its 2018 low when CPO bottomed.
The market is betting HEAVY that CPO price will plummet and export tax remains high.
Both things ignore current facts.
This pessimism in commodities vs euphoria in banking and techs is a worldwide phenomenon* (see Short memo pt.2: Banking Mad Cash Injection Miracle Is at Its End (UBS, The Canary In The Mine) - 9 April 2024). CPO is the most unloved of them all, followed by crude oil.
So, what happens to AALI when past relationship kicks in again?
...and the 'most unloved stock' for most people (but not me).
*I include gold to this euphoric asset as well. Gold down? See my gold analysis in October 2024 (The Gold Bugs' Twilight = The End of Equity Bubble). As I said there, a view that sees gold as 'pure asset' will lead to big disappointment.
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