It is, without a doubt, not an ending diagonal.
More importantly for me, BWPT did not form an impulsive wave because the start of wave 1 has been breached.
It is rare for technical analysis to say: you are 100% wrong. Elliott Wave does. When the wave is over, it is over. When the rules are broken, then you are 100% wrong. I can't stick with these prior views anymore, because it is proven wrong. So, what's next?
Let's take a step back before going further. Some of my friends have been asking me for some time now if I regretted owning this stock (my average price is 190). I don't. Why? Back then, I relied on Elliott Wave analysis and a simple reasoning that this company has not filed bankcrupcy and there is a sound argument why palm oil prices will rise (it already did and hopefully continues to do so).
More importantly, I knew the risk, but I chose to swallow it because of my belief to its potential reward based on those analysis (and now, EVA - which unfortunately, I can't say this investment thesis is robust - read my EVA analysis if you want to know in details). It is a mistake to make an investment where you are blind to the risk.
And certainly, I did not regret to invest when I thought BWPT formed an ending diagonal. Why it was important? Because, not only an ending diagonal signals a major reversal, but also the subsequent moves will be sharp.
So now we know there is no ending diagonal..what now?
Well, now there is no high probability anyomore that a bull market will be sharp (if it finally makes a bull market). Anything can happen now. It was not an impulsive wave. It was not an ending diagonal. Even with now we know some of what is not possible, I still can't figure out where BWPT is in Elliott Wave roadmap. The reason is because it has become too complex. It is better to wait for clearer picture to emerge.
With Elliott Wave structure now out of the picture, I will concentrate on where are the significant levels are that could be the major support. Let's bring Fibonacci analysis.
It is very likely that you haven't seen this application of fibonacci analysis. This technique is especially useful when a stock is making a new high or a new low. The first step is to identify the 'mid-point'. This mid-line point will be the anchor for fibonacci projection. So, make sure it is significant. I chose 214 as the mid-point because it was the start of a gap in 2018. Gaps are always important. Future price projection always have a meaningful geometrical relationship with gaps. If you remembered, the gap back than was when the former Malaysian Prime Minister lost the election and charged with corruption (which has a tie with BWPT ownership). I believe that level is important.
A fibonacci retracement then drawn from mid-point to point 1. Then, without changing anything, I moved the retracement upside down (hence, the mid-point is like a mirror). The same process is repeated with point 2.
After all those things, we now have a fibonacci confluence zones. Look closely where the lines are clustered. That's fibonacci confluence zones.
As you can see, there is confluence zone near 100. The last time I checked, BWPT bounced a bit at this level. I do not know if the reversal begins now. It could go down further to around 67, the next confluence zone. There is a divergence with RSI currently. Cross my fingers. I do believe it makes no sense for BWPT to go down the drain to 50 (a level of bankrupcy) when CPO price has been going up. I find it hard to believe that it makes economic sense to close down the shop when your plantation has all just matured and now you can extract more margins as CPO goes higher (unlike GZCO where, as far as I know, a lot of its plantation are still immature).
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